2016 Predictions
Posted: Fri 18 Dec 2015, 18:53
Over on his website, David Candlish challenged me to make my predictions about what the camera manufacturers will do during 2016? So here goes starting with some general ones. The first one is easy as it is a Photokina year, so there will be more announcements than in 2015 with a slew of them during the last few weeks leading up to the event. We will see mainly iterations of current ranges and no one will introduce a system with a new lens mount based around either a full frame or crop sensor. The sensors in some systems are becoming outdated, so I expect some manufacturers to release updates, mainly Fuji and Olympus although Sony could get in on the act as well.
2016 will not be the breakthrough year for mirrorless, so Canon and Nikon DSLRs will continue to dominate the market. New mirrorless models will continue to show improvements to continuous AF, but will still not quite match the capabilities of higher end DSLRs. Until sales volumes increase, there will be no specialist lenses such as tilt/shift made available for any mirrorless system.
Canon will introduce replacements for the 1DX, 5D Mk III and 70D, with the latter finally getting the 24 MP APS-C sensor. The first two are harder to predict, but will most likely only see modest increases in the number of megapixels, with Canon continuing to show little interest in competing against Nikon and Sony in that regard. The new sensors will be met by a barrage of criticisms that dynamic range remains much the same as present and there is little improvement in their DxOMark ratings compared to their predecessors. The 5D Mk IV will have the same AF system as the 7D Mk II, but the FPS rate will show only a modest increase over the outgoing model. The updates of older lenses will continue and build quality will be stellar for the top end products.
Fuji will have a new Sony sourced APS-C 24 MP sensor which will initially feature in the X100, X-Pro1 and X-T1 replacements. It will continue to adhere to its X Mount Lens Roadmap, with the 100 - 400 being featured at Photokina. The roadmap is empty for the first half of the year, which further suggests that the early emphasis will be on new cameras. There will be no full frame models.
Leica is scheduled to release two further lenses for its new SL and an adapter for R mount lenses to replace the current double adapter solution would not go amiss. That will further boost the already high second-hand prices of the more desirable German made optics, despite being manual focus only with some of them aged 20 years old or more. There could also be another Q model, possibly featuring a fast lens around the 75 mm mark. The T system will get an update with a new sensor, which is more likely to be 20 MP than 24 MP to avoid clashing with the M and SL systems. There will also be new T lenses, with at least one prime. Finally there will be new premium priced Panasonic based compacts.
Nikon will release a DSLR which will not require a recall to resolve a manufacturing defect. Yes, I know that I am really sticking my neck out with that one, but it could happen. There will be a D5 with a modest megapixel increase and a D810 replacement which features the Sony 42 MP sensor, as well as what seem to be annual upgrades to the consumer grade models. The D610 replacement will get the 36 MP sensor, but not necessarily during 2016. Expect some new lenses as well. The 1 system will receive Sony's latest 1" 20 MP sensor.
Olympus will announce an E-M1 Mk II with a 20 MP sensor. We will finally get to see the much anticipated 300 f/4, which will have had a gestation longer than an elephant's by the time the first punter gets their hands on it. New camera features will continue to be added via firmware upgrades.
Panasonic will put the 20 MP sensor from the GX8 into the G8 and CM5 replacements, and will update the LX100 and FZ1000 models. The former will have a version of the m43 20 MP sensor which will be implemented in a similar manner to the current model so that aspect ratios can be altered without affecting the image's pixel count. The FZ1000 update will feature the latest Sony 1" 20 MP sensor. Both compacts will feature as Leica variants.
Samsung. Who knows? Maybe it will limit its marketing efforts to Asia where mirrorless cameras are more popular, but I would not be surprised to see a technology sell off or possibly a partnership with another company. It could compete against Sony in the lucrative sensor market.
Sigma will continue to add to its range of Art lenses, including the 85 f/1.4 which everyone seems to want and a mid range zoom. It will be a year of consolidation for its Foveon cameras, with the replacement for the SD1 using the third generation sensor being long overdue. There will be no full frame Foveon sensor, either real or merely announced. Amongst other reasons, the demands on computing, power and heat dissipation would simply be too great.
Sony will stun the photography world by moving away from its FE range and announcing yet another new lens mount. I am mainly joking, of course, although given Sony's recent track record I would not rule it out entirely. Sony desperately needs to have more native FE lenses, but the rumours in mid 2015 of additions and an updated roadmap have not yet come to fruition. Maybe 2016 will be the year. The 24 MP APS-C sensor has been around for a while, so we could see an update which will first appear in the A7 III before Nikon is allowed to use it. The A7 R III and RX1 R III will also get a new sensor which leapfrogs Canon's 50 MP one in its 5Ds models. The law of diminishing returns in terms of improvement to image quality will apply. There will be a new 1" sensor for the RX100 V which will have a RRP of £1,000. OK, maybe that will be £999 for marketing reasons, but Sony does not lack ambition when it comes to pricing.
Tamron will have more new lenses which will compete against the top marques, but undercut them on price albeit with a lower build quality.
Finally, a personal prediction. Once again I will be distinctly unimpressed by the most of top entries in the RPS International Print Exhibition, the winning shots in particular.
Agree or disagree, this is all just a bit of fun and you are invited to post your own forecast or comments. We can dig this post out in 12 months time and all have a good laugh about how wide of the mark I was.
2016 will not be the breakthrough year for mirrorless, so Canon and Nikon DSLRs will continue to dominate the market. New mirrorless models will continue to show improvements to continuous AF, but will still not quite match the capabilities of higher end DSLRs. Until sales volumes increase, there will be no specialist lenses such as tilt/shift made available for any mirrorless system.
Canon will introduce replacements for the 1DX, 5D Mk III and 70D, with the latter finally getting the 24 MP APS-C sensor. The first two are harder to predict, but will most likely only see modest increases in the number of megapixels, with Canon continuing to show little interest in competing against Nikon and Sony in that regard. The new sensors will be met by a barrage of criticisms that dynamic range remains much the same as present and there is little improvement in their DxOMark ratings compared to their predecessors. The 5D Mk IV will have the same AF system as the 7D Mk II, but the FPS rate will show only a modest increase over the outgoing model. The updates of older lenses will continue and build quality will be stellar for the top end products.
Fuji will have a new Sony sourced APS-C 24 MP sensor which will initially feature in the X100, X-Pro1 and X-T1 replacements. It will continue to adhere to its X Mount Lens Roadmap, with the 100 - 400 being featured at Photokina. The roadmap is empty for the first half of the year, which further suggests that the early emphasis will be on new cameras. There will be no full frame models.
Leica is scheduled to release two further lenses for its new SL and an adapter for R mount lenses to replace the current double adapter solution would not go amiss. That will further boost the already high second-hand prices of the more desirable German made optics, despite being manual focus only with some of them aged 20 years old or more. There could also be another Q model, possibly featuring a fast lens around the 75 mm mark. The T system will get an update with a new sensor, which is more likely to be 20 MP than 24 MP to avoid clashing with the M and SL systems. There will also be new T lenses, with at least one prime. Finally there will be new premium priced Panasonic based compacts.
Nikon will release a DSLR which will not require a recall to resolve a manufacturing defect. Yes, I know that I am really sticking my neck out with that one, but it could happen. There will be a D5 with a modest megapixel increase and a D810 replacement which features the Sony 42 MP sensor, as well as what seem to be annual upgrades to the consumer grade models. The D610 replacement will get the 36 MP sensor, but not necessarily during 2016. Expect some new lenses as well. The 1 system will receive Sony's latest 1" 20 MP sensor.
Olympus will announce an E-M1 Mk II with a 20 MP sensor. We will finally get to see the much anticipated 300 f/4, which will have had a gestation longer than an elephant's by the time the first punter gets their hands on it. New camera features will continue to be added via firmware upgrades.
Panasonic will put the 20 MP sensor from the GX8 into the G8 and CM5 replacements, and will update the LX100 and FZ1000 models. The former will have a version of the m43 20 MP sensor which will be implemented in a similar manner to the current model so that aspect ratios can be altered without affecting the image's pixel count. The FZ1000 update will feature the latest Sony 1" 20 MP sensor. Both compacts will feature as Leica variants.
Samsung. Who knows? Maybe it will limit its marketing efforts to Asia where mirrorless cameras are more popular, but I would not be surprised to see a technology sell off or possibly a partnership with another company. It could compete against Sony in the lucrative sensor market.
Sigma will continue to add to its range of Art lenses, including the 85 f/1.4 which everyone seems to want and a mid range zoom. It will be a year of consolidation for its Foveon cameras, with the replacement for the SD1 using the third generation sensor being long overdue. There will be no full frame Foveon sensor, either real or merely announced. Amongst other reasons, the demands on computing, power and heat dissipation would simply be too great.
Sony will stun the photography world by moving away from its FE range and announcing yet another new lens mount. I am mainly joking, of course, although given Sony's recent track record I would not rule it out entirely. Sony desperately needs to have more native FE lenses, but the rumours in mid 2015 of additions and an updated roadmap have not yet come to fruition. Maybe 2016 will be the year. The 24 MP APS-C sensor has been around for a while, so we could see an update which will first appear in the A7 III before Nikon is allowed to use it. The A7 R III and RX1 R III will also get a new sensor which leapfrogs Canon's 50 MP one in its 5Ds models. The law of diminishing returns in terms of improvement to image quality will apply. There will be a new 1" sensor for the RX100 V which will have a RRP of £1,000. OK, maybe that will be £999 for marketing reasons, but Sony does not lack ambition when it comes to pricing.
Tamron will have more new lenses which will compete against the top marques, but undercut them on price albeit with a lower build quality.
Finally, a personal prediction. Once again I will be distinctly unimpressed by the most of top entries in the RPS International Print Exhibition, the winning shots in particular.
Agree or disagree, this is all just a bit of fun and you are invited to post your own forecast or comments. We can dig this post out in 12 months time and all have a good laugh about how wide of the mark I was.
