davidc wrote:Do you really think the dslr will be as obsolete as film? I mean, the EOS line of lenses has been going for 30 years spanning film and digital and though the underlying technology might be out of date with respect to newer models will we not simply be seeing "bigger/better" DSLRs?
In a word, yes. DSLR/SLR design is a compromise as having the mirror between the lens and film/sensor increases the rear focus beyond where it would naturally fall, so lenses have to be bigger as a result. That adds bulk and weight and most people are not prepared to lug heavy equipment around when they do not have to.
davidc wrote:Also, consider that when the paradigm shift of film to digital occurred, with all the opportunities it presented, cameras went from slr to dslr - i.e. essentially the same, just the sensor that was different.
In the early days of digital, manufacturers adapted what they had and Canikon continued their existing domination, based on their legacy 35 mm systems. New entrants such as Panasonic, Olympus, Samsung and Fuji cannot compete with that, but instead are coming out with smaller, lighter systems which use EVFs and/or the rear screen. Sony is something of an oddball, having both a system based on the old Minolta Dynax cameras and a separate range of CSCs. Perhaps with today's announcement -
http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/08/27 ... ra-for-400 - we are starting to see a convergence?
What is interesting is that digital was a hugely disruptive technology, which made life difficult for the incumbent manufacturers as their profits were made from film based products. Even Kodak, which invented digital imaging, has struggled and lost its dominance in the market which it held for well over a century. Hasselblad invested in digital early on, but closed its imaging division as at the time the results did not match those from film. The company nearly went out of business when sales of film cameras decreased. Leica was unprofitable, its future uncertain, until it was able to develop its digital M and S models. Now it cannot make enough of either to meet demand, even with some huge price hikes.
Now the new players to the market are taking on Canikon by manufacturing smaller/lighter cameras. What the current crop of CSCs lack are the lenses, mainly. m4/3 is currently best in this regard, Sony in particular has concentrated more on the cameras than the optics. All have some way to go before they can match the Canikon duopoloy, but it will happen and these will be lenses designed for digital, rather than film. Canon and Nikon know that they have to adapt, but do not want to lose sales of their DSLR systems while they change. There is an interesting parallel with what happened with the introducton of digital as new entrants take on the older ones using newer technology.
With its CSC system, Nikon went for something which would not compete with its DSLRs, but overpriced it and sales have not met its expectations. Canon made a half hearted effort with the EOS-M, but the new sensor announced in the forthcoming 70D is optimised for a mirrorless system, not DSLRs. I expect some significant developments by Canon over over the next 3 - 4 years.
davidc wrote:Looking at the current models of cameras and the results other club members get from older models, the differences are not huge - side by side I doubt we could tell the difference between a 5d and 5dmk3 image unless you're into absurd levels of pixel peeping. Better ISO and AF systems in the newer models but the images it produces in the right hands are still cracking. So for me personally it'll need another paradigm shift that changes photorgaphy (like film > digital) because otherwise these new mirrorless cameras are doing the same as the line of gear I've invested in and at a similar price.
Totally agree. The main advances in recent sensor technology have been more pixels and better low light performance. At the print sizes we see in the club, once you go beyond 10 - 12 megapixels there is not going to be much advantage. Even Canon agrees with you, as it has been using basically the same 18 MP APS-C sensor for the past four years. I suspect that it is also the reason why camera sales are falling as once the era of rapid change in the early days passed, people no longer have such a need to upgrade frequently.
I still shoot with my DSLR for preference, but my Panasonic m4/3 cameras meet most of my needs when I do not want the bother of carrying a lot of heavy kit. Even when using a couple of consumer level lenses, I am happy with the results I get. For that reason I am no longer prepared to make significant investments in any more obsolescent DSLR equipment and when I do next make a major system camera purchase, it is more likely to be a CSC. EVFs are going to have to make a significant improvment before that happens, though.