2016 Predictions

[Mike Farley]

I rather lost interest in this thread shortly into the new year. Primarily that was due to a complete lack of discussion to keep the thread going, which presumably indicated a lack of interest on the part of everyone else. It was never meant to be that serious, just a bit of fun for everyone. Anyway, as the year nears its end I thought I would resurrect it with a series of posts for each of the brands mentioned. But first, I'll look at the general predictions for systems, sensors and DSLRs vs mirrorless.

We will see mainly iterations of current ranges and no one will introduce a system with a new lens mount based around either a full frame or crop sensor.

Half right, but I did not foresee the new medium format systems from Fuji or Hasselblad. Technically I could claim a win there, as so far there have only been announcements and there are no actual cameras and lenses available to buy this side of the year end. That's a bit of a stretch, though.

The sensors in some systems are becoming outdated, so I expect some manufacturers to release updates, mainly Fuji and Olympus although Sony could get in on the act as well.

The big surprise was the long overdue introduction of a new sensor design by Canon, which first appeared in the 80D and then the 5D IV. It largely addresses the differential in dynamic range compared to Sony sensors. How long before it is rolled out across the range? We did see the expected updates from Fuji and Olympus, but Sony might have been impaired by the earthquake in April which affected production. With the exception of the GX8 which has 20 MP, Panasonic stuck to its 16 MP sensor.

2016 will not be the breakthrough year for mirrorless, so Canon and Nikon DSLRs will continue to dominate the market. New mirrorless models will continue to show improvements to continuous AF, but will still not quite match the capabilities of higher end DSLRs. Until sales volumes increase, there will be no specialist lenses such as tilt/shift made available for any mirrorless system.

I am claiming success with this one. There are indications that 2017 might be different, as Canon finally appears to be getting more serious about mirrorless with the launch of the M5. In the meantime, Nikon seems to have quietly dropped its 1 series mirrorless system to which it was never really committed. That could indicate it is concentrating on something else. And where Canon goes, Nikon is bound to follow.

Where I might be off beam is with the AF capabilities of the E-M1 II. If the price is anything to go by, Olympus must be confident that it can match the 7D II and D500.

[Mike Farley]

Canon will introduce replacements for the 1DX, 5D Mk III and 70D, with the latter finally getting the 24 MP APS-C sensor. The first two are harder to predict, but will most likely only see modest increases in the number of megapixels, with Canon continuing to show little interest in competing against Nikon and Sony in that regard. The new sensors will be met by a barrage of criticisms that dynamic range remains much the same as present and there is little improvement in their DxOMark ratings compared to their predecessors. The 5D Mk IV will have the same AF system as the 7D Mk II, but the FPS rate will show only a modest increase over the outgoing model. The updates of older lenses will continue and build quality will be stellar for the top end products.

OK, I got most of the cameras, but it all went rapidly downhill after that apart from the prediction of a modest megapixel increase for the 1DX II the 5D IV AF. After years of claiming that their old sensor technology was competitive, Canon finally updated it. To be fair to Canon, despite the criticism of its sensor it was still outselling other manufacturers. There were six new lenses, including the 16-35L III and a revision of the 24-105. As previously noted, the M5 mirrorless camera marked a significant step forward for Canon. It is the first M with a viewfinder.

[Mike Farley]

Fuji will have a new Sony sourced APS-C 24 MP sensor which will initially feature in the X100, X-Pro1 and X-T1 replacements. It will continue to adhere to its X Mount Lens Roadmap, with the 100 - 400 being featured at Photokina. The roadmap is empty for the first half of the year, which further suggests that the early emphasis will be on new cameras. There will be no full frame models.

I totally missed the medium format GFX and the 24 MP X100 is not slated to appear until February 2017. There is also the fixed lens X70 which made an appearance; unscheduled by my account. The X-E2S, essentially a slightly tweaked X-E2, was a surprise as well. The X-E2 firmware update which was released at the same time was a generous gesture by Fuji as it updated the camera to a near X-E2S specification.

Overall it was a good year for Fuji. I bought into the system.

[Mike Farley]

Leica is scheduled to release two further lenses for its new SL and an adapter for R mount lenses to replace the current double adapter solution would not go amiss. That will further boost the already high second-hand prices of the more desirable German made optics, despite being manual focus only with some of them aged 20 years old or more. There could also be another Q model, possibly featuring a fast lens around the 75 mm mark. The T system will get an update with a new sensor, which is more likely to be 20 MP than 24 MP to avoid clashing with the M and SL systems. There will also be new T lenses, with at least one prime. Finally there will be new premium priced Panasonic based compacts.

As this was a Photokina year, I was expecting big things from Leica in its home country. Instead, the company consolidated on the models it had announced previously. The SL lenses came to pass. Just. The telephoto zoom came out as expected, but the 50 Summilux has only just been made available for pre-order. The R mount adapter also now exists and is capable of reading the ROM in the last series of R lenses which records the settings. I am not sure that prices for R lenses have increased, but Ffordes has fewer listed on its website than at the beginning of the year.

The T system did receive an update, but not the one I was imagining. It was rebranded as TL. And that was it, other than a new macro lens. There is no additional Q model and although Panasonic brought out new compacts with Leica branded zoom lenses, the Leica variants thenselves have not appeared. Yet. That's no bad thing so far as I am concerned. Those V-Lux and D-Lux cameras always seemed at odds with the other offerings in the company's now extensive range.

What I did not mention in my predictions was anything about a new M camera. That must have been an oversight on my part as the current model has now been around for 4 years, which makes it due for replacement. It would surely have been the centrepiece of Leica's huge stand at Photokina, where it takes an entire hall to itself. The only new M lens is a recreation of the diminutive 28 f/5.6 Summaron from the 1950s and which was last manufactured in 1963. As an aside, I have an old screw thread 35 f/3.5 Summaron which I inherited from my dad. Despite being around 65 years old, it belies it small size and produces lovely results.

Overall, Leica surprised in 2016. Just not in the way I had been anticipating.

[Mike Farley]

Nikon will release a DSLR which will not require a recall to resolve a manufacturing defect. Yes, I know that I am really sticking my neck out with that one, but it could happen. There will be a D5 with a modest megapixel increase and a D810 replacement which features the Sony 42 MP sensor, as well as what seem to be annual upgrades to the consumer grade models. The D610 replacement will get the 36 MP sensor, but not necessarily during 2016. Expect some new lenses as well. The 1 system will receive Sony's latest 1" 20 MP sensor.

Another mixed bag of predictions. It was an Olympic year, so the D5 was a foregone conclusion. Nikon finally introducing a successor to the much loved D300 in the form of the D500 was totally unexpected. With both cameras, it really could not afford a repeat of the manufacturing issues which have beset its previous DSLRs recently. And so it proved.

Other than that, the new cameras lower down the range received modest upgrades, with some features being removed. The Kumamoto earthquakes in April which affected Sony's sensor production might have disrupted plans for upgrading the other full frame DSLRs. As for the new DL range of compact cameras, another surprise, Nikon's marketing support seems to be lacklustre and I do not think I have even seen one. Nikon appears to have lost interest in the 1 series, which have some good features but have always looked overpriced. The last announcement was in April 2015, a deathknell surely?

[Mike Farley]

Olympus will announce an E-M1 Mk II with a 20 MP sensor. We will finally get to see the much anticipated 300 f/4, which will have had a gestation longer than an elephant's by the time the first punter gets their hands on it. New camera features will continue to be added via firmware upgrades.

Both predictions came true, although the cost of the E-M1 Mk II is an eye opener. Capable the camera might be, but at that price it is up against some strong composition. In addition, there was the 20 MP Pen-F with a design which harks back to early rangefinder models. The 300 f/4 duly appeared, a couple of months or so after the elephant gave birth. The unanticipated 12-100 f/4 zoom gives a real boost to the range of lenses, which also saw a few other useful additions.

Panasonic will put the 20 MP sensor from the GX8 into the G8 and CM5 replacements, and will update the LX100 and FZ1000 models. The former will have a version of the m43 20 MP sensor which will be implemented in a similar manner to the current model so that aspect ratios can be altered without affecting the image's pixel count. The FZ1000 update will feature the latest Sony 1" 20 MP sensor. Both compacts will feature as Leica variants.

Panasonic surprisingly stuck with the 16 MP sensor for its new interchangeable lens cameras. The FZ1000 duly received an update to the FZ2000, but much of the technology, including the sensor, remained the same. The upgrades were more to do with enhancing video capabilities and came with a considerable price hike. The LX100 remains current, but the LX10 with 1" sensor represents a new venture. The CM5 is still with us.

Samsung. Who knows? Maybe it will limit its marketing efforts to Asia where mirrorless cameras are more popular, but I would not be surprised to see a technology sell off or possibly a partnership with another company. It could compete against Sony in the lucrative sensor market.

Zip from Samsung. Not even a formal announcement that it is no longer in the camera market.

Sigma will continue to add to its range of Art lenses, including the 85 f/1.4 which everyone seems to want and a mid range zoom. It will be a year of consolidation for its Foveon cameras, with the replacement for the SD1 using the third generation sensor being long overdue. There will be no full frame Foveon sensor, either real or merely announced. Amongst other reasons, the demands on computing, power and heat dissipation would simply be too great.

The 85 f/1/4 duly appeared with a slew of Art designated lenses including a wide-angle zoom, but no mid-range zoom. The 500mm F4 Sport represents a step into the market currently dominated by Canon and Nikon. The SD Quattro duly appeared in not one but two flavours, with a new APS-H sensor appearing alongside the existing APS-C one. The quality of Sigma's Raw processing software remains an issue, but the new cameras have the option to produce a DNG file which is compatible with Lightroom. I am still trying to understand how that works, given that the algorithms required for the Foveon sensor to produce an image are very different to those for a conventional sensor. I did e-mail Sigma, but they were not forthcoming with an explanation. Maybe their UK support does not understand it, either?

Sony will stun the photography world by moving away from its FE range and announcing yet another new lens mount. I am mainly joking, of course, although given Sony's recent track record I would not rule it out entirely. Sony desperately needs to have more native FE lenses, but the rumours in mid 2015 of additions and an updated roadmap have not yet come to fruition. Maybe 2016 will be the year. The 24 MP APS-C sensor has been around for a while, so we could see an update which will first appear in the A7 III before Nikon is allowed to use it. The A7 R III and RX1 R III will also get a new sensor which leapfrogs Canon's 50 MP one in its 5Ds models. The law of diminishing returns in terms of improvement to image quality will apply. There will be a new 1" sensor for the RX100 V which will have a RRP of £1,000. OK, maybe that will be £999 for marketing reasons, but Sony does not lack ambition when it comes to pricing.

Camera wise, it was a relatively quiet year for Sony. Maybe the A7 announcements were delayed by April's earthquake? Only the quickfire announcements of the near similar 6300 and 6500 harked back to the Sony of the last few years. The A99 was a surprise, though. But surely only those who already own A mount lenses will be in the market for it. A very capable camera which few people will actually buy. There were also new versions of the RX10 and RX100 models, the latter coming in at the predicted price point. Puzzingly, all the predecessors f both cameras remaining on sale. How do people know which one to buy? There were a lot of new lenses, all of which were for the full frame FE mount.

Tamron will have more new lenses which will compete against the top marques, but undercut them on price albeit with a lower build quality.

Tamron was also quiet with only three new lenses. An upgraded and higher priced 150-600 was announced, but is not yet available.

Finally, a personal prediction. Once again I will be distinctly unimpressed by the most of top entries in the RPS International Print Exhibition, the winning shots in particular.

Absolutely no surprises with that prediction, but then it happens every year.

That's it for the review of 2016. It was fun to do once, but the camera market is essentially iterative with no earth shattering updates to what has gone before. That makes my prediction for 2017 very simple. There will be more of the same.